Tuesday, February 15, 2011

EUR/USD - February 15, 2011 - 30 minute candles


It looks like the Euro is producing a double zigzag for subminuette wave 2 (orange).  Likely retracement is to the .500 to .618 level before downward movement resumes.  The reason I'm expecting larger (as opposed to .382) corrective retracements is that I think we're in an Intermediate (black) wave 5 of a Primary (burgandy) wave 1, and not a wave 3 of 3 of a Primary wave 3.  Fifth waves aren't nearly as aggressive as wave 3's.  If price continues to stairstep down in an orderly fashion, (as opposed to falling off a cliff), I'll continue to favor my leading diagonal interpretation over a wave 3 of 3 of 3 type count, which I do believe will happen in the Euro, but not until mid-2012 or so . .