Thursday, February 10, 2011

$SPX - February 10, 2011 - 360 minute candles. Wave 5 of 5 of 5 . .


My long term count for the US stock market is generally bullish (at least until the Cycle wave 5 culminates), but now that the shorter term waves 5 of 5 of 5 are all but complete, we should see some sort of correction quite soon.  The Elliott wave principle generally states that the most likely correction target is the extreme of the 4th wave of one lesser degree.  The upcoming correction, if my wave count is correct, would be a wave 2, which can theoretically correct all the way to the starting level of wave 1, but more typically corrects between .382 and .618 the distance that wave 1 traveled, (Fibonacci retracement levels).  If my count is correct, we'll see a wave 2, which most likely will take the form of an A-B-C zigzag or zigzag combination.

Also, in my opinion, there's a chance this upcoming correction may be something akin to a "flash crash", and here's why:  Since all the shorts have been continuously and quite relentlessly squeezed out of their positions for 7+ months, when the correction does finally arrive, the "lift" that would normally be created by shorters taking profits on the way down will be conspicuously absent.  The mass belief on Wall Street that the Fed is manipulating the stock market is causing yet another bubble.  Oh, brother . . .