YouTube video - Sid's long term Elliott Wave analysis of the Nasdaq index ($COMPQ)

I've made the script from the above video available below, so those of you who prefer a language other than English may use a translation program to follow along:

Hi, this is Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. In today's video, we'll be taking a long term view of the Nasdaq Index, symbol $COMPQ. This chart is made up of monthly candles.

I've labeled this March 2000 high as a probable Supercycle top, but whether that's what it is or not doesn't matter here in this video. The most important thing about the Elliott Wave labeling on this chart is that the bear market in the Nasdaq from March 2000 to October 2002 occurred in a clear 5 waves down. Also key is that the subsequent upward movement through October 2007, which I have labeled here as Primary (burgundy) wave A, is NOT impulsive, because the middle section is choppy and overlapping. In my opinion, it counts best as an ABC zigzag.

The, the strong downwavd movement that followed through March 2009, which many have tried to force a 5-wave impulsive count onto, actually, in my opinion, counts best as yet another ABC zigzag. Also important is that this wave, which I've labeled as Primary (burgundy) wave B, retraced 90.1% of the distance traveled by Primary wave A, therefore meeting the Elliott Wave requirement in a "flat" correction that wave B retrace at least 90% of wave A.

Since we now have a correction that has started with 3 waves up, followed by a 3-wave retracement of at least 90%, we therefore are looking for the "flat" structure to complete with a 5 wave impulsive move to the upside, eclipsing the extreme of Primary (burgundy) wave A. Since this correction from the October 2002 low has already eclipsed the .382 Fibonacci retracement level (measured from the March 2000 high), it is reasonable to expect that Primary (burgundy) wave C will be seek out the .618 fib level.

This is what I've depicted in this projection, with an already finished intermediate (black) wave 1 and wave 2, with wave 3 now in progress, to be followed by waves 4 and 5 (black), to complete the bear market rally in the Nasdaq.

Why do I refer to the movement since the October 2002 low a bear market rally? Because the downdraft from March 2000 through October 2002 occurred in a clear 5 waves, and this wave followed a parabolic rise to the all-time high, which lasted for many decades. Since that bear market occurred in 5 waves, it CANNOT be considered a complete corrective structure, which means that the Nasdaq Index is destined to eventually move below 1108, as depicted here.

Thanks for watching, and be sure to check my website, ElliottWavePredictions.com for regular postings, many of which present potential short term high-reward, low-risk trading ideas in the markets. Also, the site includes links to the finest Elliott Wave educational materials on the internet, almost all of which are free.

Disclaimer: All my posts are informational only, and are not intended as trading or investment recommendations.

This is Sid from Elliott Wave Predictions. See ya again soon!