Monday, February 21, 2011

Nasdaq E-mini - February 21, 2011 - 360 minute candles. The long-awaited correction may finally be getting started, BUT . .


Although the above chart depicts that an intermediate top is in, I'm waiting for confirmation in the form of movement below 2328.25 (the extreme of subminuette wave 1 orange) before even considering getting short.  Also, it would be nice to be able to at least count 5 waves down from the high on 5 minute chart.  That's where the bad news comes in (if you're looking to get short) , because downward price action so far (on the 5m timeframe), although starting with a very quick (possibly submicro degree) 5 waves down for what appeared to be an impulsive wave 1, has now turned choppy and overlapping during subsequent downward movement, right where an impulsive wave 3 down would be expected.  Not a good sign for the bears.  So, the jury is still out on whether this is really the beginning of a larger correction or not.

One additional problem, the NY stock market is on holiday today, so I think it would be unwise to be drawing conclusions without all the "strong hands" in the game . .

See http://sidscharts.blogspot.com/2011/02/spx-february-13-2011-monthly-candles.html for my current (but tentative) long-term count on the US stock market.